经济波动与增长在线讲座： 宏观与贸易中的网络

经济波动与增长在线讲座：

 

宏观与贸易中的网络

 

Network in Macro and Trade

 

 

 

主办：北京大学汇丰商学院、萨金特数量经济与金融研究所

 

时间：2020.9.11 上午9：00-11:00

 

ZOOM会议号：92761056762

 

会议密码: 492158

 

 

 

　　网络在经济行为中具有重要的作用。特定的网络结构为理解微观经济行为的宏观效应提供了新的传导机制。本讲座分为两部分。第一部分将简要介绍网络结构的基本概念及其相关的经济学理论；第二部分将介绍网络在宏观与贸易研究中的应用。

 

 

　　1. Industrial Policies in Production Networks, Ernest Liu, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019.

 

　　Abstract: Many developing economies adopt industrial policies favoring selected sectors. Is there an economic logic to this type of intervention? I analyze industrial policy when economic sectors form a production network via input-output linkages. Market imperfections generate distortionary effects that compound through backward demand linkages, causing upstream sectors to become the sink for imperfections and have the greatest size distortions. My key finding is that the distortion in sectoral size is a sufficient statistic for the social value of promoting that sector; thus, there is an incentive for a well-meaning government to subsidize upstream sectors. Furthermore, sectoral interventions’ aggregate effects can be simply summarized, to first order, by the cross-sector covariance between my sufficient statistic and subsidy spending. My sufficient statistic predicts sectoral policies in South Korea in the 1970s and modern-day China, suggesting that sectoral interventions might have generated positive aggregate effects in these economies.

 

　　2. International Friends and Enemies, BennyKleinman, Ernest Liu, Stephen J.Redding, 2020, NBER working paper.

 

　　Abstract: We develop sufficient statistics of countries' bilateral income and welfare exposure to foreign productivity shocks that are exact for small shocks in the class of models with a constant trade elasticity. For large shocks, we characterize the quality of the approximation, and show it to be almost exact. We compute these sufficient statistics for over 140 countries from 1970-2012. We show that our exposure measures depend on market-size, cross-substitution and cost of living effects. As countries become greater economic friends in terms of welfare exposure, they become greater political friends in terms of United Nations voting and strategic rivalries.

 

主讲人：Ernest Liu (刘斯原)

 

 

　　普林斯顿大学经济系助理教授，2017年毕业于MIT经济系，获经济学博士学位，主要研究领域为金融、贸易、增长以及宏观发展，已在国际经济金融顶级期刊Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Financial Economics发表多篇论文，并获China International Conference in Macro最佳论文奖。

 

　　来源：“北大汇丰学术动态”微信公众号